With carrying out the evacuation operations in what is called “The Four Cities Deal” as the first batches of displaced of both sides enter the areas of the conflicting parties regarding religion and homeland; and with rebels being limited in two main regions north and south the country, the scheme of new middle east dividing Syria into three cantons becomes clear.
The first one is in the north from the western and northern countryside of Aleppo to Idlib, its countryside and Hama northern countryside, where this area will be under the trusteeship of the Turkish intelligence.
The second area currently includes Dara’ and Ghotah, and maybe As Suwayda would be included in the future in case it did not become a canton by its own for Druze minority, in addition to a part of Palmyra desert under the trusteeship of Jordanian intelligence.
The third area will be controlled by a secular regime ruled by Assad family, including Damascus, Homs, Hama, Lattakia and Aleppo city. With this, two parts remain; the most important one is the Kurdish canton east Euphrates including Hasaka Qamishley and Deir Azzor ruled by utter racial trend.
While the last area will be under the trusteeship of the biggest countries fighting ISIS, where this area will be later delivered to one of the biggest powers which are fighting for petrol and gas.
The division will be accompanied with long-term truce during which the political visions will interfere forcing the civilian life after a stability that will happen in some areas through forcing an internationally no-fly in accordance to a deal with Assad regime.
The aim of this is driving refugees to return to their areas where the economical, industrial and touristic projects will launch so that rebels will feel something of unconscious yielding making them hate war atmosphere preferring stability and peace.
Then only the heads of power in cantos will decide their destiny either as one country through political solution where this will not happen as Assad is in Power, or as federate cantons with independent regimes and under one authority in official just like the neighbor Lebanon. There is another option which the international community aspire, it is leaving Assad in power in a country ripping the northern and southern with geographical regions Damsacus and Aleppo forcing who remain south such as Dara’a and Damascus countryside to be under trusteeship of neighboring country, while Idib and its countryside in addition to Aleppo countryside to be under the trusteeship of new Othman sultan.
This scene becomes a tangible reality amid discordance among the military and political forces not agreeing on one military commander, and amid absence of political commandership of clear positions to represent them outside, will rebels inside and outside notice what the case will turn to? Or will every faction stand alone having different position connected to the supporting side’s position?
By Samah Alkhaled
Translated by Sabah Najem
Syrian Press Center
