منذ الأسابيع الأولى التي أعقبت سقوط النظام السوري السابق في كانون الثاني/يناير 2024، بدا واضحًا أن روسيا لا تسعى إلى الدخول في مواجهة مع السلطة الجديدة في دمشق، بل عمل الطرفان على اتخاذ خطوات متوازنة تعكس رغبة مشتركة في الحفاظ على مستوى معين من العلاقات
فقد اتضح ذلك من خلال الاتصال الهاتفي الأول الذي جرى في شباط/فبراير 2025 بين الرئيس الروسي فلاديمير بوتين والرئيس السوري الانتقالي أحمد الشرع، والذي وصفه الكرملين آنذاك بأنه “بنّاء ومناسب للأعمال”، كما تبع هذا الاتصال تصريحات لوزير الخارجية الروسي سيرغي لافروف حول زيارات رفيعة المستوى يجري التحضير لها، وصولًا إلى زيارة وزير الخارجية في حكومة الرئيس أحمد الشرع، أسعد الشيباني إلى موسكو للقاء لافروف، حيث وجّه الأخير دعوة رسمية للشرع لحضور القمة الروسية – العربية
هذه المؤشرات عززت الانطباع بأن موسكو تصرّ على التمسك بوجودها في سوريا وإظهار دعمها لوحدة البلاد واستقرارها، في وقت يشهد فيه الداخل السوري تحولات حساسة
وعلى الصعيد الأمني، نشرت وسائل إعلام روسية مؤخرًا تقارير تفيد بأن الحكومة الانتقالية السورية أبدت اهتمامها بعودة دوريات الشرطة العسكرية الروسية إلى المحافظات الجنوبية، وذلك في ظل تزايد الحديث عن مشروع يُزعم أنه “ممر إنساني” يربط إسرائيل بمحافظة السويداء
وفي هذا السياق يؤكد الخبير الروسي نيكولاي سوخوف، الباحث الأول في مركز دراسات الشرق الأوسط التابع لمعهد بريماكوف الوطني لبحوث الاقتصاد العالمي والعلاقات الدولية (IMEMO)، أن إعادة الدوريات الروسية إلى الجنوب السوري يبدو منطقيًا في سياق الجهود المبذولة لخفض التصعيد وتجميد الجبهة الجنوبية، موضحًا أن دمشق ترى في تلك الدوريات وسيلة لضبط الانفلات الأمني والحوادث الطارئة، ولا سيما في ظل استمرار النشاط العسكري الإسرائيلي ويرى سوخوف أن هذا الطرح يتماشى عضويًا مع الرؤية الروسية التي تركز على الحفاظ على وحدة الأراضي السورية
أما بالنسبة إلى مشروع “الممر الإنساني” المثير للجدل، فيشير سوخوف إلى أنه يحمل إشكاليات خطيرة، لأنه قد يُفهم كخطوة نحو تقسيم مُقنّن، أو بمثابة احتلال فعلي للأرض من جانب إسرائيل، فضلًا عن كونه يشكل تطبيعًا غير مباشر مع دمشق على حساب السيادة السورية ومواردها، خصوصًا في ظل غياب توافق داخلي أو إقليمي حوله ويشير الى أن الموقف الروسي واضح في هذا الشأن، وهو قبول أي صيغة إنسانية فقط إذا كانت مؤقتة وبحتة، وتحت إشراف دولي موثوق مثل الأمم المتحدة أو الصليب الأحمر الدولي، على أن تكون العملية منسجمة مع السيادة السورية ولا تؤسس لأي ترتيبات أمنية أو اقتصادية استثنائية ويحذر سوخوف من أن الالتزام بهذه الضوابط يضمن تفادي الاحتكاك مع القوات الروسية، لكن خرقها سيؤدي حتمًا إلى توتر وتصاعد التنافس على الصلاحيات
ويضيف الباحث أن السلطة الجديدة تُظهر قدرة على بناء مؤسسات والانفتاح على الشركاء الدوليين، لكنها لم تتمكن بعد من ضمان الأمن الداخلي بشكل كامل، أما بالنسبة إلى روسيا، فإن أولوياتها في المرحلة الراهنة تتركز على دعم إصلاح قطاع الأمن وتعزيز هرمية الأجهزة الأمنية، إلى جانب حماية كافة المكوّنات المجتمعية
وبذلك يتضح أن موسكو تعمل على الحفاظ على نفوذها في سوريا عبر مزيج من التحركات الدبلوماسية والوجود الأمني، في الوقت الذي تحاول فيه رسم خطوط حمراء تحول دون أي مشاريع تُهدّد وحدة البلاد أو تضعف سيادتها، مع إبراز اهتمام خاص باستقرار الجنوب السوري وضمان حماية الأقليات ضمن معادلة أكثر تعقيدًا في المشهد السوري الراهن
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