Looking back at Friday night, the entire coup attempt by small parts of the Turkish Armed Forces against the government of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan lasted only 6 hours. After that, stability in Istanbul and Ankara were mostly restored and the purge for the masterminds and supporters of the failed coup was on.
Still, even within the short period of uncertainty, Syrian rebel groups like Ahrar al-Sham posted messages on Twitter and their respective homepages, condemning the putschists and expressing their support for the elected Turkish government. The next morning, civilians in Syrian areas close to the border were called to demonstrate their support for the government of Mr. Erdogan, which they did in big numbers. This is only some evidence that the coup attempt was followed closely by Syrian opposition forces and people living in the free areas of the country. They knew its outcome would have largely affected the ongoing resistance vs. the Assad regime and its allies in Syria.
Turkey is known to be the main supply route for goods to Syrian opposition-held areas. Most supplies to Idlib, Hama and Aleppo provinces enter into Syria from its northern neighbor. President Erdogan has always expressed his support for the uprising vs. dictator Bashar al-Assad and his gang. He has called the international community more than once to supply the Syrian opposition with what it needs to keep up the resistance and many Syrian rebels I spoke to describe Mr. Erdogan’s policy towards Syria as the main cause they are still able to continue the struggle against the genocidal regime in Damascus.
So a successful coup in Turkey will certainly carry the risk of a policy shift towards Syria in general and Syrian rebel forces in particular. Though it is not yet perfectly known who is behind the coup in Turkey, many analysts argued that the revolting army units describe themselves as “secular”, a label also the Assad regime claims for itself. Thus a successful coup and a shift in power in favor of these forces would have the risk of having a more Assad-friendly authority and less support for Syrian rebel groups.
For Syrian opposition factions, the failed coup seems to be the best chance to further count on a supportive policy approach from Ankara and keeping up the important flow of items from Turkey to Syria up. Even beyond continuing his current policy approach towards Syria, Turkish president Erdogan could feel encouraged by the massive popular support in the hours and days after the failed coup to intensify his efforts and increase support for the Syrian opposition.
Beyond that, some saw recent Turkish announcements of seeking better ties with Russia and Syria as a sign of Turkey seeking reconciliation with the Assad regime and Russia, its most important ally. Determined and reassured Turkish president could set an example to his domestic and international supporters and critics by keeping up his support for Syrian rebel groups and thus keeping up the pressure on Putin and Assad.
The failed coup−and this is for sure−gives the free parts of Syria more certainty than a military coup in Turkey which would only be a political black box in terms of its foreign policy, especially its approach towards Syria.
The widespread support of Mr. Erdogan could also have resulted in violent clashes between−then−ruling putschists and the population. And the last thing the region needs right now is another major armed conflict, potentially destabilizing the Middle East further.
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