اتفاق إسرائيلي أوروبي يهدد اقتصاد الجزائر

سلام عبد الحي-الجزائر

“على مدى عقود، كنا نشكو من النفوذ العربي في أوروبا بسبب النفط والغاز، إلا أنه ومع تصدير الغاز من إسرائيلإلى دول الاتحاد الأوروبي سنَحُدّ من التأثير العربي في مجال الغاز والنفط، وسنصبح بلدا ذا ثقل مواز للقوة العربية في هذا المجال”.

كان هذا أول تصريح لوزير الطاقة الإسرائيلي يوفال شطاينس بعد توقيع تل أبيب اتفاقا لمد خط أنابيب بحري لنقل الغاز من إسرائيل إلى أوروبا، وذلك بدعم من الاتحاد الأوروبي وتمويل إماراتي.

تسونامي الإمدادات
مع إمدادات النرويج من الشمال، وإمدادات روسيا من الشرق، وتعزيزها بثلاثة خطوط إمداد: “ساوث ستريم” و”ترك ستريم” و”نورد ستريم 2″، ووصول شحنات الغاز الصخري الأميركية إلى قلب أوروبا، وشحنات الغاز المسالالقطرية والإيرانية، ومستقبلا شحنات الغاز البحري المسال التي ستأتي من غرب أفريقيا عبر الأطلسي؛ سيزيد أنبوب الغاز الإسرائيلي حالة التشبع في السوق الأوروبية.

ويرى عبد الرحمان مبتول الخبير الاقتصادي ومستشار الوزير الأول الجزائري السابق عبد المالك سلال أن “المشروع يشكل خطرا على الجزائر على المدى البعيد، باعتبارها أكبر مورد لجنوب أوروبا بالغاز وثالث مزود للقارة العجوز بعد روسيا والنرويج، مما سيؤدي إلى انكماش حصتها، ويؤثر على مداخيلها من صادرات الغاز”.

واستثمرت الجزائر مبالغ ضخمة في مد ثلاثة أنابيب غاز نحو أوروبا، اثنان يمران عبر تونس وواحد عبر المغرب، وهذا ما سيؤثر سلبيا على الجارين الشرقي والغربي للجزائر، إذا تراجعت الدول الأوروبية عن استيراد الغاز الجزائري.

ويشير مبتول في حديثه للجزيرة نت إلى تحديات أخرى تواجه الغاز الجزائري بدخول الغاز الإسرائيلي السوق الأوروبية بعد خمس سنوات، وهي ارتفاع الضغط على الجزائر لتخفيض السعر، والقبول بشروط الزبائن الأوروبيين، خاصة مع اقتراب آجال انتهاء العقود الطويلة بين عامي 2019 و 2022، حيث تفضّل الجزائر إبرام عقود طويلة الأمد مع البلدان التي تشتري منها الغاز، وهي الرغبة التي أصبحت تزعج الشركات النفطية الأوروبية التي تفضل عقودا قصيرة الأمد.

معطيات جديدة
تعتبر الجزائر من أهم مزودي القارة الأوروبية بالغاز الطبيعي، إذ تستورد القارة العجوز نحو 30% من احتياجاتها من الغاز من الجزائر، عبر ثلاثة أنابيب لنقل الغاز: أولها أنبوب “GLSI”، والثاني “ميد غاز” (MEDGAZ)، والثالث المخصص للنقل إلى إسبانيا عبر المغرب.

وتحوز إيطاليا أكبر حصة من الغاز الجزائري بنحو 60%، تليها إسبانيا بنحو 20%، وفرنسا بنحو 12%، ثم البرتغالبنحو 7%، وسلوفانيا بـ1%.

إلا أن هذه الأرقام يمكن أن تتغير إذا لم تنجح الجزائر في تقديم عروض مغرية لزبائنها الدائمين، في ظل دخول منافسي الجزائر بمعطيات جديدة.

 الصادرات الجزائرية من الغاز الطبيعي تبلغ سنويا 54 مليار متر مكعب (رويترز-أرشيف)

تحدي الحفاظ على السوق
في ظل هذا الوضع الذي تشهد فيه سوق الغاز الطبيعي “تسونامي” الإمدادات، وتراجع الأسعار، أصبح المصدر الأول لمداخيل الجزائر من العملة الصعبة مهدّدا، لذلك فهي مجبرة على الحفاظ على سوقها التقليدية للغاز، حسب مراقبين.

ويبلغ حجم الصادرات الجزائرية من الغاز الطبيعي 54 مليار متر مكعب، في وقت تمثل فيه المحروقات نسبة 93% من قيمة هذه الصادرات.

ويوضح الخبير في الطاقة مهماه بوزيان للجزيرة نت أن الجزائر تبنت مخططا متعدد الجوانب، وذلك بتجديد عقودها منتهية الصلاحية بشروط جديدة، وتخفيض مدة العقود إلى عشر سنوات، ومراجعة قانون المحروقات، وإنشاء أنبوب فرعي للغاز يمتد من عين تيموشنت (أربعمئة كيلومتر غرب العاصمة الجزائرية) نحو إسبانيا دون المرور بالمغرب.

ويشير إلى أن هذا المخطط يتضمن أيضا مضاعفة احتياطات البلاد من الغاز عن طريق استغلال الغاز الصخري، والتوجه للاستثمار وتوسعة قدراتها في الغاز المسال الذي يتيح لها الوصول إلى الأسواق الفورية والبعيدة، بالإضافة إلى بعث الصناعات البتروكيماوية من خلال التخطيط لإعادة ضخ نصف إنتاج الجزائر من الغاز الطبيعي في السوق الداخلية وضمن السلاسل الصناعية.

ويضيف الخبير في الطاقة أن هذا التوجه الجديد يندرج ضمن مخطط تفادي الخسارات في سوق محدودة ومشبعة، وتثمين مقدرات الجزائر من الغاز الطبيعي لإعادة تسويقه في شكل مواد مصنعة ونصف مصنعة، التي تمثل قيمة مضافة في الأسواق الدولية.

وتحتضن الجزائر مقر معهد البحوث حول الغاز الذي يضمن تطوير السياسات في إطار رؤية 2040 المنبثقة عن منتدى الدول المصدرة للغاز الطبيعي الذي يتخذ من العاصمة القطرية الدوحة مقرا له.

المصدر : الجزيرة

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    I’ll check back ⅼater on and see if the problem still eⲭistѕ.